Gold has been on a tear, and a surprising survey by Goldman Sachs shows that many large investors believe the rally is far from over. The numbers? A hefty portion expects gold to cross $5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.
What the Poll Revealed
- Goldman Sachs polled 900+ institutional investors via its Marquee platform, between November 12–14, 2025.
- 36% of respondents think gold will exceed $5,000/oz by end-2026.
- Another 33% expect gold to trade in the $4,500–$5,000 range over the same period.In total, more than 70% of those surveyed are bullish and expect higher gold prices.
- Only about 5% of the participants believe gold could fall to $3,500–$4,000 in the next 12 months.
Why Investors Are So Bullish
According to the survey, the top drivers behind this optimism are:
- Central Bank Buying
- 38% of respondents said central bank gold purchases are the main reason for the gold price surge.
- Goldman Sachs itself sees central bank accumulation as a structural demand factor.
- Fiscal Concerns
- 27% of the investors attributed their bullishness to worries about fiscal instability (e.g., government debt or deficit issues).
- Monetary Policy Risk
- Goldman Sachs analysts warn that a risk to the Federal Reserve’s independence could pop gold even higher.
- In a scenario where private investors rotate just 1% of U.S. Treasury holdings into gold, Goldman estimates gold could “rise to nearly $5,000/oz” (all else being equal).
- The erosion of trust in the dollar or institutional trust could make gold even more attractive as a “store of value.”
How This Compares to Goldman’s Own Forecasts
- Goldman’s base-case (i.e., their “official” forecast) sees gold rising to $4,000/oz by mid-2026, supported by central bank demand and potential rate cuts.
- But their “tail-risk” or more aggressive scenario — illustrated by this survey — imagines gold going well beyond that, motivated by macro shocks, institutional flows, and policy risk.
- Goldman says that gold is its “highest-conviction long” among commodities, meaning they see it as a very strong long-term play.
What This Means for the Market
- Safe-haven demand is structurally rising:
The poll indicates that central banks are likely to continue hoarding gold. This isn’t just a speculative trade — many institutions are treating gold as a long-term hedge. - Tail-risk scenarios are being priced in:
The fact that such a large fraction of investors are positioning for $5,000 gold suggests they’re not just playing for “normal” upward moves; they’re preparing for a potentially radical macro move. - Gold is becoming a systemic macro asset:
When institutions start seriously considering shifting even small amounts from sovereign debt (like U.S. Treasuries) to gold, it signals that gold’s role could evolve from a niche hedge to a big macro asset class. - Volatility risk remains:
Goldman itself warns that speculative long bets can lead to pullbacks. While many are bullish, not all scenarios will play out smoothly. - Policy risk is front and center:
Issues like Fed independence, inflation, and dollar credibility are no longer theoretical — they’re core to institutional gold demand models.
Risks to This Bullish Narrative
- If central bank buying slows, gold’s foundation could weaken.
- A strong rebound in the U.S. dollar or a rapid shift in rate expectations could dampen the rally.
- If institutions are wrong about macro risk, gold could underperform.
- Tactical correction risks remain: Goldman flags that speculators might take profits or reduce long exposure, especially after a big run-up.
Final Take
Goldman Sachs’ poll is a big deal. It’s not just their analysts forecasting $5,000 gold — many of their clients are as well. That alignment between a major bank and its institutional clients suggests the gold bull case is far more than just hype: it’s being driven by real concerns about central bank behavior, fiscal stability, and monetary policy.
If you’re an investor (or simply someone curious about where macro risk is going), this survey could be a signal that gold is not just a hedge — but a core strategic bet for the next few years.