Introduction
Black Friday 2025 marked a landmark moment in e-commerce. According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. online spending on the day hit approximately US $11.8 billion, up about 9.1 % from the prior year. This surge came even amid persistent economic headwinds—high inflation, low consumer confidence, and rising tariffs.
But the more interesting story is how AI-powered tools and shopping agents helped drive this growth: not just more spending, but a shift in how shoppers found and made purchases.
Role of AI in the surge
Several data points illustrate the AI influence:
- Adobe reports that AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail websites jumped 805 % year-over-year.
- Other commentary notes that users who arrived via AI-assistant paths converted at higher rates (for example, one article said “shoppers who landed on a site from an AI assistant were 38 % more likely to convert than everyone else”).
- Globally, AI and digital shopping agents influenced about US $14.2 billion of online sales on Black Friday, of which around US $3 billion originated in the U.S.
- Major retail AI assistants—such as Rufus (by Amazon) and Sparky (by Walmart) —helped shoppers spot deals faster, compare prices, and decide more quickly.
- The shift to mobile-first shopping was amplified—with more frictionless paths via AI. Some reports indicated that more than half of the Black Friday online sales occurred via smartphones.
In short: AI lowered barriers to discovery and decision-making. In a year when consumers were particularly cautious, this may have made the difference between “I might buy” and “I will buy”.
Economic & consumer-context backdrop
That strong growth came despite non-ideal conditions:
- Rising average selling prices: One data set found that although spending rose, the number of items per transaction fell (units per checkout fell ~2 %) and order volumes were down ~1 %, while average selling prices rose ~7 %.
- In-store traffic remained weak: While online grew by double digits, many physical retail stores showed minimal growth or even declines in “foot traffic” for Black Friday.
- The holiday-shopping season is stretching out: Buyers are less concentrated just on the Black Friday day and more across “Cyber Week” or earlier deals.
- Shoppers were facing inflation, tariff-driven price pressure and lower discretionary budgets—which makes the resilience of this online growth noteworthy.
Thus, the environment was challenging—but also primed for tools (like AI assistants) that remove friction and help consumers act efficiently.
Implications for retailers and shoppers
For retailers
- Being “easy to find” via AI assistants is becoming increasingly important. As one commentary noted: “shoppers are trusting AI to do the busywork and find them the best value… The challenge is that they no longer control the narrative—the AI assistant does.”
- Mobile experience and speed matter more than ever, since many transactions happen on smartphones.
- Discounting remains important, however, higher cost bases (due to tariffs/prices) make deep discounting harder—so retailers must optimise customer experience and service, not just price.
- For offline/physical retail, the message: the role is shifting from being the “main event” to being part of an omnichannel ecosystem—digital tools may define the shopping journey, not just the in-store visit.
For shoppers
- The proliferation of AI assistants means access to deal-discovery, price-comparison, and suggestion engines is more widespread—not just via big-brand apps but third-party tools.
- With fewer items per checkout but higher average spend per item, consumers seem choosing “better” or “more premium” items rather than just higher volume.
- Convenience (avoiding long queues, navigating crowded stores) plus digital tools appear to be compelling enough for many shoppers to prefer online than in-store.
- However: “more spend” does not necessarily mean “better value” — higher prices meant that even as spending rose, unit counts dropped. So shoppers still need to be discerning.
Looking ahead
- The projections suggest that the even bigger moment may be Cyber Monday, with online spending estimated around US $14.2 billion.
- The role of AI in retail is likely to deepen. As one forecast from Morgan Stanley suggests: nearly half of online shoppers in the U.S. may use AI-shopping agents by 2030, potentially adding incremental tens of billions to e-commerce.
- Retailers will need to evolve their loyalty models: in a world where the shopping journey begins with an AI assistant or search query, being “top of mind” means more than brand affinity—it means being seamless, trusted, and accessible.
- For markets outside the U.S., the digital-shopping and AI-assisted pattern may accelerate—so monitoring global behaviour is important.
Conclusion
Black Friday 2025 wasn’t just notable because consumers spent a record US $11.8 billion online—it was notable how they spent it. The surge of AI-driven traffic, the shifting modes of shopping (mobile, casual, assisted) and the changing role of brick-and-mortar all signal a meaningful pivot in retail. AI isn’t just an add-on; it appears to be a catalyst for efficiency, accessibility and value discovery in an era where consumers are more price-conscious and time-sensitive than ever.
For both retailers and shoppers, the message is clear: adapt or be sidelined. The tools that simplify and amplify value will win.