Introduction
The Nifty 50 is currently trading in the neighbourhood of ~26,000, a level that carries both psychological and technical importance. Analysts, including Kranthi Bathini of WealthMills Securities, are asking: in this environment, is it time for aggressive participation (“chase”) or is caution the better path (“wait it out”)? In this write‐up, we explore his key arguments, the market backdrop, the risks and triggers, and what this means for investors.
The current backdrop
Bathini points out several factors that are supporting the market at this juncture:r
- Domestic liquidity remains strong, which is helping underpin valuations.
- Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation, and hopes of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have lifted global sentiment and benefited Indian equities.
- A thawing in trade tensions (notably between the U.S. and China) and improved global cues are also helping.
- On the downside, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain cautious, and valuations are increasingly in stretched territory.
In short: the market has tailwinds, but also is navigating a more complex and risk-laden environment.
Key risks and positive triggers
Risks
Bathini emphasises that the near-term risks are more than just technical—they’re macro and geopolitical as well. The main risks include:
- Inflation surprises: If inflation in India or globally picks up, the rate expectations may shift.
- Interest rate shocks: If central banks (domestic or global) signal delayed or smaller rate cuts (or even hikes), that could undermine equity valuations.
- Global instability: Trade tensions, geopolitical flare ups, currency fluctuations, or macro slowdowns can easily derail optimism.
- Valuation fatigue: The argument that “markets are no longer cheap” is explicitly flagged by Bathini—meaning upside may be limited unless justified by earnings.
Positive triggers
On the flip side, the potential upside catalysts that Bathini mentions are:
- Improving corporate earnings: Strong earnings can validate the valuations and push the index higher.
- Domestic growth momentum: Infrastructure, capital goods, and consumption segments are cited as areas with potential strength.
- Mega IPOs and fresh capital flows: The entry of large IPOs and continued retail/institutional participation could provide additional upward thrust.
Sectoral & valuation view
Bathini’s sectoral view is selective: he prefers sectors tied to domestic growth (infrastructure, capital goods, consumption) and is more cautious about globally-exposed sectors which may face headwinds.
On valuation: he notes that the market is “leaning toward the higher end of valuation metrics” — in other words, the margin for error is smaller.
Technical view & important levels
From a technical perspective:
- The Nifty has recently closed near ~25,966.05 (on 27 Oct 2025), just shy of 26,000.
- Analysts expect immediate support around ~25,700 and resistance approaching ~26,000 – 26,100+ territory.
- If momentum continues, the zone ~26,100-26,200 is being eyed as the next target.
In other words: technically the market is at a critical juncture, where either it breaks higher or could consolidate / pull back a bit.
So: Time to chase or wait out?
Based on Bathini’s framework, here’s how to think about the decision:
Chase scenario:
If you believe that the positive triggers will dominate (earnings growth, domestic liquidity, favourable global cues) and you are comfortable taking risk, then this could be a moment to participate—selectively. Particularly in sectors that have favourable structural tailwinds (infrastructure, consumption) and where valuations are still relatively attractive compared with the broader market.
Wait‐out scenario:
If you are more cautious, concerned about stretched valuations, global uncertainty or inflation/interest rate shocks, then it may be prudent to either wait for a pullback or keep your exposure selective and defensively positioned. The elevated valuation means that the upside is more limited and the downside risk is more significant.
Bathini’s lean: he appears to favour selective participation rather than broad aggressive chasing. He emphasises stock-picking and being mindful of risks over taking a blanket “buy everything” stance.
Recommendations / Actionable Steps
For an investor reading this, here are some actionable take-aways (reflective of Bathini’s guidance plus general prudence):
- Review your portfolio: highlight exposure in sectors with weaker fundamentals or heavy global cyclical exposure; consider trimming or re-allocating.
- Emphasise quality: favour companies with strong balance sheets, domestic growth orientation, visible earnings visibility.
- Be mindful of valuation: before buying, check if the stock/sector still has reasonable upside vs risk; don’t just buy because the index is rising.
- Use support levels: if the Nifty dips toward ~25,700-25,500 (or a pullback in your target stocks), that could offer a better entry point rather than buying at the peak.
- Keep an eye on triggers: inflation prints, central‐bank commentary, global trade/geopolitical developments—these can quickly shift market tone.
- Manage risk: given elevated valuations, keep stop‐losses, or use hedges or portfolio diversification appropriately.
Conclusion
In summary: the Nifty near 26,000 is not obviously a “go all‐in” moment, but also not a signal to hide away completely. The current environment supports being invested, but it demands selectivity, discipline and risk awareness. Bathini’s view suggests: participate, but don’t chase indiscriminately; maintain focus on fundamentals, valuations and triggers; recognise that upside is less “free” than it might have been earlier, and downside risks are real.