With approximately two months remaining until Christmas, retail leaders are openly preparing for a holiday-season unlike any other—one defined by cautious consumers, shifting behaviours, and technological acceleration. Drawing on the latest surveys and industry reports, this essay outlines what major players are expecting for the 2025 holiday-shopping season: where opportunity lies, where risk looms, and how they intend to respond.

An environment of caution, not collapse

Several recent forecasts warn that while the holiday season will likely see growth, it will be modest and braced by headwinds. For example, Bain & Company projects U.S. retail sales growth of around 4.0 % in the November-December period—below the ten-year average. Similarly, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) expects a 3.5 % to 4.0 % increase in holiday retail sales.
At the same time, consumer-facing surveys reveal a more fractious story. For example, the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 2025 Holiday Outlook found 84 % of consumers plan to cut back over the next six months, and average planned holiday spend was down about 5 % year-on-year.
The implication for retailers: this is not a repeat of boom seasons, but neither is it a collapse. Instead, it’s a period of “steady but shaky” growth—where winning requires sharper discipline and more nuance.

Key themes shaping the season

From multiple industry sources, several consistent themes emerge:

1. Value and price sensitivity dominate.
Consumers are entering the season with heightened awareness of cost: tariffs, inflation, and elevated living costs are driving them to trade down or buy fewer items. For example, the Bain infographic highlights that “value” will matter more than ever. The BCG analysis emphasises that around 75 % of consumers said they would adjust their behaviour (buy lower-priced goods, buy less) if prices rise.
Retailers therefore expect that promotions, private-label alternatives, bundling, and “smart value offers” will be central to capturing spending.

2. The shopping season is starting earlier and getting more fragmented.
Several reports show that consumers are beginning their holiday buying earlier than ever, and that the peak window is less concentrated. For example, the Circana survey found nearly half of shoppers plan to start before Thanksgiving, and only 19 % plan to wait until December to begin. MyTotalRetail describes 64 % of shoppers saying they’ll start in November or earlier.
For retailers, this means the traditional “big event” window (Black Friday through December) is both longer and fuzzier—requiring ongoing campaign activation rather than a single blitz.

3. Omnichannel and digital remain essential—but with caveats.
Many consumers still visit physical stores (especially for experience, immediacy, or fulfilment), but digital and mobile are increasingly influencing shopping behaviour. According to ICSC, 92 % of shoppers plan to spend in a physical store, underscoring in-store relevance. Meanwhile, other reports highlight the rise of apps, desktop shopping, and multibrand marketplaces.
Retailers will therefore need to seamlessly coordinate online, offline, fulfilment and returns—with fluidity of experience, convenience, and reliability top of mind.

4. A “two-tier” consumer economy is becoming clearer.
Data suggest a widening gulf: more affluent consumers remain relatively resilient and may treat themselves, while value-conscious consumers are highly cautious. The Placer.ai analysis calls it a “two-tier economy” shaping the holiday shopping season.
For retailers, this bifurcation means that one size does not fit all: strategies must tailor for premium buyers (experience, uniqueness, premium value) and budget buyers (discounts, essentials, value sets).

5. Inventory, fulfilment and technology (esp. AI) are mission-critical.
Retailers are especially focused on getting inventory right, avoiding overstocks of slow-moving items and out-of-stocks of high-demand ones, since trade uncertainty and tariffs have created additional supply-chain complexity. And the role of AI in commerce is ramping up: for example, personalised offers, demand-sensing, dynamic pricing, chat-assisted shopping, etc., are now core parts of the holiday strategy.

Strategic implications for retailers

Given the environment and themes above, retail leaders are adopting several strategic levers:

• Segmented price architecture: Offering both tiered pricing (premium + value) and private-label or “trade-down” alternatives. Retailers benefiting will be those who can clearly communicate value—not just lower price, but better perceived value for dollars spent. (See Deloitte’s insight that value will drive spend even in a constrained year. )
• Early & sustained activation: Campaigns are launching earlier and running longer—brands cannot wait until late November. Promotions, gift-guides, themed content and fulfilment options are already in motion.
• Fulfilment agility: Click-and-collect, buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS), flexible returns, leveraging physical stores for fulfilment, and smooth digital interfaces will be differentiators.
• Experience + emotional relevance: Given consumers may trim quantity, brands that win will emphasise emotional connection, gifting convenience, personalised experience, brand story, and convenience.
• Risk mitigation & inventory discipline: With tighter consumer budgets, any mis-step in inventory (too much of the wrong thing) can erode margin heavily. Retailers are therefore investing in analytics, demand sensing, and tighter supply-chain control.
• Tailored approach: Recognising that affluent buyers might still spend freely, while others will focus on “must-haves,” value deals, and essentials. Hence, a one-size promotional plan is insufficient.

What this means for the consumer and for the season

From the consumer’s perspective, the 2025 holiday season looks set to be one of moderated ambition: spending will continue, but with greater deliberation. Many will aim to preserve tradition (gifting, gatherings, experiences) but will be more selective in what they buy, how much they spend, and when they shop. Retailers expect fewer impulse “big” purchases, more value-oriented decision-making, and earlier purchase behaviour.

For the season as a whole, retail leaders anticipate growth—but probably lower growth than in some recent years. The window is more competitive, and winners will be those able to adapt to consumer constraints and execute with agility.

As one leading analyst puts it: “Plan for your top-line sales to be up, as long as you have a strong market position and smart assortment decisions.”

Conclusion

With two months to Christmas, retail leaders are in gear: shifting from “can we sell more?” to “how can we sell more wisely?” Economic headwinds, heightened price sensitivity, supply-chain complexity, and evolving consumer behaviours mean that the season is no longer reliably a growth bonanza, but rather an opportunity for those who execute with precision and consumer insight.

For retailers, the mandate is clear: move early, provide real value, meet shoppers where they are (both in channel and mindset), and keep inventory and fulfilment nimble. For consumers, the season promises tradition, choice and gifting—but perhaps less excess, more deliberation, and smarter spending.